Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42b5b3c113c1ac0bc9b922fc943b79d0e2dae1609f616c64a20505e82af3d7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 446.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 3c | 428.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 347.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 30c | 339.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 66c | 256.64$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 40c | 247.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 190.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 73c | 173.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 40c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 159.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 29c | 116.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 109.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 28c | 106.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 32c | 100.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 99.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 98.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 98.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 23c | 96.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 83.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 83.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 79.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 71c | 71.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 64.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 42c | 64.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 62.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 61.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 26c | 55.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 58c | 49.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 29c | 48.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 45.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 37c | 42.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 40.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 34c | 37.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 37.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 32.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…f4d7backed Yes | 31c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 69c | 27.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 71c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 25.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 78c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…2ddebacked No | 75c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 56c | 17.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked No | 75c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.