Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4370ffe11664c75fad0bdfbcd164086651fc9b289d75b1a794f1942d7c1fe46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 489.77$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 73c | 256.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 58c | 251.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 242.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 192.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 147.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 119.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 111.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 103.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 80c | 99.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 90.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 70.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 15c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 61.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 58.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 57.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 42c | 48.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…5bf5backed No | 50c | 47.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 46.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 46c | 40.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 40c | 40.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 37.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 44c | 35.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 43c | 34.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 73c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 59c | 32.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 43c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 35c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 47c | 28.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 57c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 53c | 21.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 51c | 19.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 66c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.