Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43d973f4e3dfe70a48c282e123a44487fcb028af11df94eb8a97d808499fa7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Lecceof AS Roma, US Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,254 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Lecce | 65c | 3,046$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.12 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked US Lecce | 60c | 1,272$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.97 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed US Lecce | 76c | 1,088$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.76 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed AS Roma | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed AS Roma | 34c | 999.65$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked US Lecce | 62c | 723.24$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.83 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked AS Roma | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked AS Roma | 41c | 652.96$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.71 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed AS Roma | 38c | 647$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed AS Roma | 33c | 601.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed AS Roma | 39c | 508.55$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed US Lecce | 60c | 466.19$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.39 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed AS Roma | 33c | 451.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 127 | 31.5%40 W · 87 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AS Roma | 41c | 314.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked AS Roma | 40c | 292.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed US Lecce | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked AS Roma | 25c | 198.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed US Lecce | 61c | 161.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked US Lecce | 61c | 160.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed AS Roma | 40c | 147.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…259ebacked AS Roma | 40c | 123.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed AS Roma | 34c | 118.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AS Roma | 38c | 105.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed US Lecce | 64c | 99.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed AS Roma | 41c | 99.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked US Lecce | 67c | 95.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AS Roma | 25c | 94.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed AS Roma | 35c | 91.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed AS Roma | 38c | 84.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed US Lecce | 62c | 79.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed US Lecce | 61c | 76.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…3dbabacked AS Roma | 39c | 76.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed AS Roma | 43c | 68.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed AS Roma | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed AS Roma | 39c | 59.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked AS Roma | 34c | 58.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…03b3backed AS Roma | 38c | 54.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked AS Roma | 37c | 53.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed AS Roma | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AS Roma | 38c | 50.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked AS Roma | 41c | 48.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed US Lecce | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked AS Roma | 39c | 31.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed AS Roma | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed US Lecce | 63c | 30.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AS Roma | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed US Lecce | 62c | 28.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked US Lecce | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed US Lecce | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- AS Roma vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)US Lecce won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.