Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd440aad17fb58681f7ae6d8a5e7d1455b8ade10da2ddfd2e62af481b6850c3c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 899.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 24c | 586.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 509.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 424.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 389.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…cae3backed Yes | 6c | 332.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 297.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 15c | 258.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 242.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 15c | 209.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 40c | 202.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 190.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 169.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 12c | 157.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 149.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 46c | 140.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 131.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 129.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 118.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 118.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 108.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eeb…c8c1backed Yes | 10c | 101.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 65c | 91.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 90.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 78.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…d199backed Yes | 17c | 76.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 72.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 15c | 71.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 53.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 51.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 45c | 48.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 33c | 46.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 40c | 42.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 79c | 41.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 39c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked No | 50c | 28.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 78c | 27.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 42c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…df2cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…90ffbacked No | 79c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.