Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39dbd64db350213c21b50024137be4610abe2a94dc571c6936589a692aba8984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,624$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,201$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 594.27$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 32c | 326.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 252.92$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 246.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 40c | 225.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 59c | 217.75$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 178.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 165.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 135.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 121.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 120.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 115.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 105.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 99.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 97.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f59dbacked No | 68c | 90.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 57c | 82.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 77.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 75.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 73.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 69.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 66.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 63.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 59c | 61.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 62c | 60.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 32c | 60.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 43c | 56.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 53.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 32c | 51.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 49.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 46.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 65c | 39.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 37.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 37c | 36.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 62c | 32.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eeb…c8c1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 61c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 79c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…9c9dbacked No | 60c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.