TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf787…1b63backed Yes57c2,817$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.3843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No20c1,216$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c1,023$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.734,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No53c746.99$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes75c578.24$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No26c550.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.658422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No53c397.48$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.161,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f67…bd8ebacked No59c341.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No77c335.29$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes27c326.66$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1923823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No26c315.44$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.832,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes71c275.59$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0830144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes54c275.1$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No31c246.01$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.443,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes55c218.68$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4112226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes53c198.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.72850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No27c197.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.441,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes42c196.35$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.114030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c190$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.61,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No48c181.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.221,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c181.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes54c170.48$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.421,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes32c163.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.521,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes71c150.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0910163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes45c145.68$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1217838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes56c136.25$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.412729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No21c127.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0218530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes53c127.25$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c126.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes23c115.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4319648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No10c115.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.964,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c112.78$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes34c102.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.854918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c102$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes28c99.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes43c95.94$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.137639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6536…0cf6backed Yes77c95.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.794320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No30c94.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.771,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed Yes67c94.07$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.292744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes33c91.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.191,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No20c87.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1655855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c86.42$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.031,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes47c82.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5710834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd87…5eb3backed No57c81.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.46065%39 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No59c79.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.811,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No37c78.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.371,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes45c75.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes49c74.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes32c63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8420838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes52c62.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9711343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.878663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes40c58.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes66c58.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.852,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes45c57.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c54.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes51c53.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.584047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c52.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.633548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54ce…7b39backed Yes29c52.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.24560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No64c49.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.751,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes23c49.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes42c48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.843844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No59c46.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No49c45.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes26c45.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes43c43.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7817536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c0…d247backed No74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No56c39.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.065158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed No51c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes27c37.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.071,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9812…913dbacked Yes37c35.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.622055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No61c35.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4242762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes69c35.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.761,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes36c34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes64c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No74c33.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No74c33.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No74c33.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No47c31.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0166944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes54c31.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.652,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked No54c31.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.777631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No43c31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No65c30.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.35837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No69c29.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9911151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6723…0f31backed Yes46c27.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c27.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes44c26.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c25.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.072,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No57c25.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2720353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.