WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd47c55d4a9348041c8461bb5907aa51f42a902a271662021d45cf48de24ac8fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 14,345$7,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,171.4 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 14,098$7,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,049 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 3,809$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,814$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.34 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…b422backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 1,044$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.27 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 714.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 504.25$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.36 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 66c | 389.57$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 358.96$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 260.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Indiana Fever | 58c | 106.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 101.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 60.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 46.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 38.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 19.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles SparksIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 184.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 185.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.