Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b496ded4403dc0a908d61c0e2346d59efafe688d424c443d200bba41f59a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 51c | 800.38$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 264 | 33.7%89 W · 175 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 782.53$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.44 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 62c | 542$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.28 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 38c | 530.21$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.19 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 54c | 511.84$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 335$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 230.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 228.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 223.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 209.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 50c | 207.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 199.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 59c | 182.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 140.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 53c | 137.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 129.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 112.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 88.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 86.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 41c | 79.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 53c | 75.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 73.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 61c | 71.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 68.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 329 | 38.3%126 W · 203 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes | 56c | 67.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 47c | 61.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…cd4ebacked Yes | 52c | 54.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 53c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 47.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 47.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 42.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 40.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 41c | 39.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 39.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 50c | 36.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 56c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 65c | 35.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 33.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 39c | 32.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 49c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 29.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 38c | 26.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 67c | 26.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 51c | 25.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 25.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…c4febacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked Yes | 61c | 23.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 54c | 22.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…e79dbacked No | 54c | 22.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.