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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No69c1,152$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.961,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes46c856.25$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.31,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c419.26$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c402.84$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.781,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No74c363.73$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0689259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No68c275.89$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.961,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1483,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed No64c189$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9630526.9%82 W · 223 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes31c160$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.42,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes31c160$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.499757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.518722.5%42 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.58822.7%20 W · 68 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.58725.3%22 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.59920.2%20 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes31c149.93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.654146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes40c145.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8511252.7%59 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No77c143.22$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9853548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes23c133.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.952842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes29c133$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6963733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c129.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.844,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No61c124.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3122160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No65c115.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.922,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes47c114.59$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7318319.7%36 W · 147 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes39c105.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.841,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d04…6298backed Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.451729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No72c101$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7218166.9%121 W · 60 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaf3…2286backed Yes25c97.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.253740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No74c94.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.969758.4%407 W · 290 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes28c93.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2860032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c92.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5812,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c91.86$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.564,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes32c90$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.227944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No67c84.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6255422.4%124 W · 430 L-21.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.54,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed No74c79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4629642.6%126 W · 170 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c76.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.493,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed Yes41c75.44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.576068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c74.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.615,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes27c74.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.034,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No71c73.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4816958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes27c72.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.431,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No70c69.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.32,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…6eb1backed Yes38c68.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.225131.4%16 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes30c66.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.272,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes51c64.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.348639.7%193 W · 293 L+21.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No73c61.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7611272.3%81 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c61.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.472,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes26c57.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7978627.1%213 W · 573 L-1.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes36c56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6467838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c50.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5812,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes30c49.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7690155.7%502 W · 399 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes28c49.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5230041%123 W · 177 L+26.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No76c46.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3532938.3%126 W · 203 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes33c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3526863.1%169 W · 99 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…c1c8backed Yes25c44.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.422119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No70c42.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021352.6%112 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes29c42.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.151,52315.4%234 W · 1,289 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes29c41.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6520711.6%24 W · 183 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c41.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.775,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No28c39.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.212,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes29c36.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.984240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c36.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.789,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No67c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452743.6%230 W · 297 L+31.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No52c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8449363.5%313 W · 180 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5376…e781backed No57c34.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed No56c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c31.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.952347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c29.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.942,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c28.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.731,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No47c26.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.361,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No75c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72,18959.7%1,306 W · 883 L+26.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c23.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c23.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.092,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes45c22.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2739070.5%275 W · 115 L+65.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No75c20.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No63c20.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0215246.1%70 W · 82 L-19.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.846736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18cf…7439backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-63.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No80c19.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4825564.7%165 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No76c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.687767.5%52 W · 25 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c17.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.945,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No73c17.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.