MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ca1b239697da437dcfaa15b6621c0b82e8e63f90562468d93cb854f94e419e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 9,508$5,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,956.34 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 3,993$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 3,578$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 2,661$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 2,031$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 1,075$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 690.3$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.54 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 669.23$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.23 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 577.43$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 507.39$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 491.53$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.53 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 231.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 218.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 192.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 120.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 73.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 60.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 56.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 43.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 36.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 35.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 32.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 29.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.