MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba517c23e5a6616c9013cde3d5338878ad6fe3829d27c029cd46f28582c93c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,826$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 1,584$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.93 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 877 | 53%465 W · 412 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 924.49$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.14 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 1,543 | 48.6%750 W · 793 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 760.12$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.6 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 574$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.5 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 531.54$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.41 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 305.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 258.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 245$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 51c | 184$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 174.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,448 | 50%724 W · 724 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 48c | 129.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 89.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 49c | 81.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 801 | 43.3%347 W · 454 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 52c | 60.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,376 | 54.3%747 W · 629 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 37.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 53c | 34.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 57c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,839 | 53.9%992 W · 847 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.