MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49dcc8f53587315d02a16eaa69fe769dfb1fd6b4f8053a32237849cff3a7ee15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,599$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.49 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 724.13$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 215.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 119.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 33.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 32.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 28.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.