MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f4d6d9f07b77f174ea46b0017e2cd052a80816ba268ac043bbe9beea80c392b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 2,237$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.66 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 1,324$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,186$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 1,056$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.57 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 1,053$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.68 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 1,020$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 872.01$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 46c | 800$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 601.52$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 38c | 526.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 62c | 440$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 40c | 335.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Over | 51c | 294.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 42c | 112.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 43c | 77.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Over | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 62c | 70.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 68.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 62.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 52.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Over | 41c | 50.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 42.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Under | 52c | 33.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 44c | 22.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.