TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb2b4…70ea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Valorant, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 58 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.5
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.5
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$39.29
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$24.14
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.63
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.87
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.16
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$16.77
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.54
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.06
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$23.18
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.61
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.51
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$18.17
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.52
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.61
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.46
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.23
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.6
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Generali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Busebacked Vit Kopriva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.8
Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulasbacked Sofia Costoulas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.2
Athens Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Maria Sakkaribacked Maria Sakkari · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.7
Swiss Open: Jaime Faria vs Casper Ruudbacked Jaime Faria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.6
Bunschoten: Jan Kumstat vs Florian Broskabacked Florian Broska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Swedish Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Nikoloz Basilashvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.6
Iasi Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Petra Marcinkobacked Elina Avanesyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Zidansekbacked Anna Bondar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.5
Bunschoten: Hynek Barton vs Joao Lucas Da Silvabacked Hynek Barton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauffbacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51
Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Ferybacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$98.79
Wimbledon WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkovabacked Liudmila Samsonova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.61
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iva Jovicbacked Iva Jovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$74.55
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$75
Wimbledon WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonovabacked Liudmila Samsonova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$30
Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Botic van de Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Wimbledon WTA: Diane Parry vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Anna Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$65.26
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergsbacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Wimbledon ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Alexander Bublikbacked Alexander Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$60.5
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baezbacked Jan-Lennard Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.5
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbertbacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
All 23 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Wildcard (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsbacked Wildcard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.79
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$74.8
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Group Abacked Isurus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$56.05
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Playoffsbacked ALKA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked Lynn Vision · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winnerbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$37.6
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$150
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.1
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$56.1
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$89.38
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$49.49
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$68
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$68
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$51
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$10.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.