TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,480 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Over45c15,594$7,086 inWon+$8,508.7513561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under55c5,000$2,750 inLost-$2,75014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under54c4,987$2,717 inLost-$2,717.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c2,526$1,266 inLost-$1,265.7412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over45c2,104$954 inWon+$1,150.316,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under54c1,556$840 inLost-$8401,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under54c1,000$540 inLost-$5402,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under55c889.57$489 inLost-$489.074,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under55c800$440 inLost-$44085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under54c499.99$270 inLost-$269.992759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over45c420$189 inWon+$23189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under50c325.07$162 inLost-$162.258,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Under54c185.19$100 inLost-$10011047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under10c155.18$16 inLost-$15.529,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under54c124.5$67 inLost-$67.232,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b85…b31bbacked Under20c75$15 inLost-$151735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under55c72.73$40 inLost-$4079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Under50c53.16$27 inLost-$26.5812746.5%59 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under59c50.85$30 inLost-$301,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over41c50.85$21 inWon+$3010,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over46c42.91$20 inWon+$23.1762554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over45c42.87$19 inWon+$23.582,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b4…70eabacked Under55c39.13$22 inLost-$21.523351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Under55c25.45$14 inLost-$147643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over74c19.23$14 inWon+$51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.