Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a3ee6ef1eace471fcfa0c20f58ddf77601be69367516c19e4f4abb40ede972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4 Anchors and Ilmeriaof 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, the bug
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d20…a165backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 46c | 34,634$16,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,618.84 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…45b5backed the bug | 52c | 11,305$5,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,891.63 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 69c | 4,824$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.68 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed the bug | 34c | 3,563$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 45c | 3,390$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed the bug | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed the bug | 35c | 2,865$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.42 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed the bug | 39c | 1,997$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.91 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 72c | 1,716$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.48 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 71c | 1,585$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.02 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked the bug | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked the bug | 60c | 1,453$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.02 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed the bug | 53c | 1,288$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.59 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…863dbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 71c | 1,249$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.83 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked the bug | 49c | 1,154$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.52 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed the bug | 41c | 1,134$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.75 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed the bug | 60c | 1,111$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.6 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 70c | 995$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked the bug | 44c | 963.12$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.94 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed the bug | 60c | 759.1$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.46 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked the bug | 25c | 706.53$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…c13fbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 55c | 705.77$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked the bug | 43c | 690.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.58 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed the bug | 60c | 685$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked the bug | 42c | 668.94$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.91 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked the bug | 60c | 637.92$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.75 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked the bug | 53c | 587.44$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed the bug | 36c | 549.06$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked the bug | 19c | 544.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked the bug | 60c | 524.86$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.33 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 40c | 514.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.62 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…9ff7backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 63c | 499$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 57c | 444.25$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed the bug | 60c | 438.33$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed the bug | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed the bug | 25c | 398.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 63c | 395.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed the bug | 60c | 394$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.82 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed the bug | 49c | 368$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…6300backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 354.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…5d2bbacked the bug | 60c | 352.09$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed the bug | 48c | 351.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked the bug | 45c | 348.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.85 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed the bug | 60c | 335$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed the bug | 27c | 333.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 36c | 328.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9618backed the bug | 29c | 322.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -9.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked the bug | 60c | 298.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.33 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed the bug | 37c | 293.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831c…ce7dbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 73c | 284.98$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed the bug | 38c | 284$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed the bug | 31c | 270.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed the bug | 60c | 260.53$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked the bug | 45c | 255$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed the bug | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…bb78backed the bug | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked the bug | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed the bug | 28c | 248$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed the bug | 29c | 237.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked the bug | 27c | 232.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…be4ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 71c | 221.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 66c | 221.38$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 72c | 214$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…43c0backed the bug | 48c | 207.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed the bug | 13c | 207.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…b50bbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked the bug | 33c | 180.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 55c | 180.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed the bug | 60c | 179.51$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 36c | 176.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked the bug | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed the bug | 60c | 170.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5480…b38cbacked the bug | 60c | 167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked the bug | 29c | 164.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed the bug | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed the bug | 60c | 159$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed the bug | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…00f2backed the bug | 51c | 155.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed the bug | 60c | 155.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed the bug | 52c | 153.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked the bug | 39c | 152$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked the bug | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked the bug | 60c | 135.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked the bug | 56c | 132.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…fc36backed the bug | 60c | 123.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked the bug | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…0cf5backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked the bug | 60c | 112.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked the bug | 60c | 109$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed the bug | 36c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked the bug | 45c | 103.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed the bug | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed the bug | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…b3debacked the bug | 29c | 94.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 72c | 88.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed the bug | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed the bug | 36c | 84.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…75debacked the bug | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.