TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
4 Anchors and Ilmeriaof 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, the bug
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria46c34,634$16,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,618.849733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed the bug52c11,305$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,891.635145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria69c4,824$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.6832549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed the bug34c3,563$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed the bug45c3,390$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.732,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed the bug60c3,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed the bug35c2,865$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.4256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed the bug39c1,997$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.9141455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria72c1,716$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.4825150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria71c1,585$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.0245352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked the bug60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked the bug60c1,453$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.022,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed the bug53c1,288$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.599744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria71c1,249$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.833342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked the bug49c1,154$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.5256945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed the bug41c1,134$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed the bug60c1,111$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.623342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria70c995$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.515050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked the bug44c963.12$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9458746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed the bug60c759.1$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4625547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked the bug25c706.53$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.634753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…c13fbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria55c705.77$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.082951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked the bug43c690.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5844049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed the bug60c685$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4115747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked the bug42c668.94$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.911,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked the bug60c637.92$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7526843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked the bug53c587.44$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.916147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed the bug36c549.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8219249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked the bug19c544.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9223736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked the bug60c524.86$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.331,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria40c514.36$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.6212646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d68…9ff7backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria63c499$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria57c444.25$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.049954.5%54 W · 45 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed the bug60c438.33$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2632552%13 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed the bug25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10041037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed the bug25c398.04$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9269132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…3323backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria63c395.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+116.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed the bug60c394$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.823348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed the bug49c368$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.325956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria56c354.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.551020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-58.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked the bug60c352.09$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed the bug48c351.35$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.657044.3%31 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked the bug45c348.72$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed the bug60c335$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed the bug27c333.16$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4971342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria36c328.06$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0610941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd592…9618backed the bug29c322.93$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.659636.5%35 W · 61 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked the bug60c298.88$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3332951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed the bug37c293.14$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.241,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831c…ce7dbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria73c284.98$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed the bug38c284$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.361,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed the bug31c270.21$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3841632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed the bug60c260.53$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8634041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked the bug45c255$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7516232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed the bug19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.55832.8%19 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa01d…bb78backed the bug30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked the bug60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2899…6ee3backed the bug28c248$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed the bug29c237.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked the bug27c232.43$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2312432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria71c221.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3813251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4228…b838backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria66c221.38$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.212650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria72c214$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.922259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9e7…43c0backed the bug48c207.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed the bug13c207.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.184910.2%5 W · 44 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866759.7%40 W · 27 L+11.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria56c200$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88fa…b50bbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked the bug33c180.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9553538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria55c180.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7986451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed the bug60c179.51$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.711040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria36c176.88$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked the bug49c175$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed the bug60c170.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5910138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked the bug60c167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.23135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked the bug29c164.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed the bug52c160$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7162841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed the bug60c159$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7517443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed the bug63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ca2…00f2backed the bug51c155.95$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed the bug60c155.81$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.493946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed the bug52c153.78$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.618150.6%41 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked the bug39c152$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2816553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked the bug27c136$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked the bug60c135.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0225851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked the bug56c132.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7230844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc988…fc36backed the bug60c123.73$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked the bug33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6231251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…0cf5backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria64c115$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.783262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked the bug60c112.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9915342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked the bug60c109$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.697538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed the bug36c106$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked the bug45c103.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed the bug46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed the bug63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.751364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…b3debacked the bug29c94.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria72c88.65$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2425339.1%99 W · 154 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8192…e1b9backed the bug29c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.652055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed the bug36c84.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.145642.9%24 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda1d…75debacked the bug60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.