Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9bd5588b85d779c88d90b21e0a3882871522b550ebe51fc3efaed4cf7eba19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4 Anchors and Ilmeriaof 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, the bug
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed the bug | 41c | 13,803$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.87 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 45c | 12,154$5,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,744.12 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 59c | 11,813$6,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.22 | 471 | 46.1%217 W · 254 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked the bug | 52c | 7,385$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,845.66 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 51c | 6,189$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,008.45 | 800 | 56%448 W · 352 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 64c | 5,502$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.88 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f6…4814backed the bug | 45c | 4,138$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 3,537$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.47 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 63c | 3,076$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 37c | 2,600$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.95 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 36c | 2,205$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.78 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed the bug | 59c | 2,166$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.18 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed the bug | 43c | 1,922$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.63 | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…9ed6backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 59c | 1,702$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed the bug | 47c | 1,577$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.88 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed the bug | 42c | 1,428$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.76 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 54c | 1,375$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.11 | 612 | 56%343 W · 269 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 46c | 1,253$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.49 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed the bug | 20c | 1,134$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 30c | 1,066$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.91 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed the bug | 48c | 1,050$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed the bug | 79c | 1,017$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.33 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 48c | 1,000$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.83 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed the bug | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed the bug | 60c | 979.21$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.44 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked the bug | 54c | 970.58$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.64 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked the bug | 53c | 946$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked the bug | 3c | 896.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked the bug | 47c | 792.51$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.19 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked the bug | 54c | 659.19$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.62 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 38c | 619.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.39 | 322 | 41.6%134 W · 188 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 49c | 609.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.65 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…863dbacked the bug | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…8aa4backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 47c | 583.78$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 53c | 566.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.23 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 53c | 565.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 410 | 55.1%226 W · 184 L | +39.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed the bug | 49c | 561.35$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.78 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…c13fbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 554.19$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 530.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed the bug | 76c | 526.7$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.47 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed the bug | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…a455backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked the bug | 48c | 485.33$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.14 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed the bug | 52c | 471.73$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed the bug | 55c | 425.79$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.89 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 33c | 398.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…998bbacked the bug | 50c | 391.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 43c | 381.37$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed the bug | 53c | 378.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked the bug | 75c | 371.87$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.58 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked the bug | 50c | 363$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 785 | 41.7%327 W · 458 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 52c | 361.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 252 | 59.1%149 W · 103 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed the bug | 52c | 356.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…78fcbacked the bug | 53c | 322.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked the bug | 53c | 322$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed the bug | 55c | 305$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked the bug | 54c | 304.19$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 59c | 297.59$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 59c | 294.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked the bug | 46c | 294.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 402 | 42.3%170 W · 232 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed the bug | 51c | 281.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 473 | 48.2%228 W · 245 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…6797backed the bug | 54c | 278$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…ba44backed the bug | 46c | 261.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked the bug | 49c | 257.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 889 | 38%338 W · 551 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked the bug | 44c | 255.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed the bug | 52c | 251.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked the bug | 51c | 246.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked the bug | 71c | 245.83$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed the bug | 53c | 223.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…1a38backed the bug | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…6d97backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 46c | 210.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked the bug | 14c | 208.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 535 | 58.9%315 W · 220 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed the bug | 53c | 203.11$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…9eaebacked the bug | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed the bug | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked the bug | 55c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 41c | 199.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked the bug | 55c | 189.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked the bug | 64c | 189.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked the bug | 70c | 188.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 53c | 187.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 55c | 181.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked the bug | 60c | 175$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked the bug | 60c | 175$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 61c | 164.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…de14backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 66c | 164.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed the bug | 59c | 162$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked the bug | 69c | 159.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 47c | 152.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 54c | 147.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked the bug | 50c | 146.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked the bug | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 545 | 48.4%264 W · 281 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked the bug | 46c | 135.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…f967backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 40c | 129.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…62f5backed the bug | 45c | 129.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…226cbacked the bug | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.