Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf9b39090c53a8a460e01221071c41fb59bddc707759d1cb661c7edb67c3d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4 Anchors and Ilmeriaof 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, the bug
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 43c | 15,000$6,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,549.93 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed the bug | 56c | 5,083$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.74 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed the bug | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed the bug | 59c | 1,800$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.39 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed the bug | 1c | 1,783$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked the bug | 57c | 1,750$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed the bug | 47c | 1,683$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.87 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked the bug | 17c | 1,529$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed the bug | 4c | 1,521$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 54c | 1,434$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.08 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…a165backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 40c | 1,037$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.19 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked the bug | 51c | 794.34$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.71 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…c45dbacked the bug | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…863dbacked the bug | 32c | 537.69$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed the bug | 60c | 505.98$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.1 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked the bug | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked the bug | 57c | 477.72$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 41c | 419.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…9828backed the bug | 5c | 402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 49c | 390.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…e59dbacked the bug | 5c | 355.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 220 | 31.8%70 W · 150 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 73c | 354.4$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 326.79$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed the bug | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed the bug | 32c | 227$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked the bug | 30c | 206$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked the bug | 37c | 203$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked the bug | 39c | 202.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed the bug | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked the bug | 37c | 197.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 51c | 193.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed the bug | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked the bug | 21c | 156$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed the bug | 57c | 143$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…933abacked the bug | 65c | 139.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed the bug | 57c | 137.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked the bug | 57c | 135.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked the bug | 26c | 129.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 46c | 127.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked the bug | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed the bug | 57c | 116$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed the bug | 17c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 35c | 103.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed the bug | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked the bug | 27c | 96.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked the bug | 57c | 91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…de14backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 79c | 89.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked the bug | 57c | 85.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…b3debacked the bug | 36c | 82.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 42c | 77.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…f967backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 39c | 76.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked the bug | 37c | 73.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed the bug | 57c | 72.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed the bug | 32c | 65.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed the bug | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…95ebbacked the bug | 21c | 47.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked the bug | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…aebbbacked the bug | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…62f5backed the bug | 56c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked the bug | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked the bug | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked the bug | 52c | 26.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…00f2backed the bug | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked the bug | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked the bug | 57c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
- Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner4 Anchors and Ilmeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.