MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d69b451d83ca26e0236d256dc94dc2470360d854b86915058410cd790a98c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 63c | 3,272$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.65 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 36c | 2,236$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.94 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 2,057$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 37c | 1,416$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 37c | 1,416$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,163$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 64c | 1,058$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 635$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 64c | 415.6$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 69c | 267.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 67c | 147.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 67c | 147.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 145.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 69c | 144.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 36c | 131.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 64c | 110.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 105.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 76.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 55.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 43c | 48.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Over | 43c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Over | 37c | 41.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 40.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 29c | 39.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 52c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 66c | 34.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Under | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Under | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Under | 67c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.