MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0369d67bc35bed3e5e3b43cd246f220da4eae5d2db9bb62f26bbc57e2c67f242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3625…1187backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 12,904$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 379 | 53.6%203 W · 176 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 4,500$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 62c | 4,413$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.21 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 3,919$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.19 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Houston Astros | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.98 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 2,526$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.22 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Houston Astros | 64c | 2,520$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.13 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 1,953$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.2 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,861$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 1,393$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.48 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 1,355$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.48 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 1,355$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.48 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 1,355$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 1,340$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…e5cbbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,201$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Houston Astros | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,150$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…9453backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…5eefbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 999.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 997.14$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 996.56$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.8 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 61c | 962.54$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.23 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 832.71$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 677.23$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.8 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 496.84$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 436.51$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 415.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Houston Astros | 59c | 400.9$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 61c | 389.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 61c | 379.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Houston Astros | 61c | 345.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 61c | 299.53$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 62c | 297.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 280$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 252.72$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Houston Astros | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Houston Astros | 60c | 236.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 61c | 111.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 108$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Houston Astros | 65c | 100.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 90.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 60.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 54.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Houston Astros | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 66c | 41.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 61c | 25.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…b6f1backed Houston Astros | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.