TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,646 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers52c1,323$686 inLost-$686.188,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros47c755$352 inWon+$402.68,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros44c272.94$120 inWon+$152.5811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros51c213$109 inWon+$104.378,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros34c129.46$44 inWon+$85.443,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers63c111$70 inLost-$69.73,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Texas Rangers66c93.86$62 inLost-$61.952,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Houston Astros71c70$50 inWon+$20.1547589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros43c68$29 inWon+$38.764,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers33c56.91$19 inLost-$18.789,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Texas Rangers60c56.46$34 inLost-$33.6445952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers66c54.82$36 inLost-$36.182,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Houston Astros34c54.08$18 inWon+$35.691,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers66c50$33 inLost-$3346854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers66c50$33 inLost-$3372154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros35c50$18 inWon+$32.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros34c49.99$17 inWon+$32.991,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Houston Astros67c49.61$33 inWon+$16.5714344.8%64 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…62babacked Houston Astros34c47.82$16 inWon+$31.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e3…4f16backed Houston Astros35c40.85$14 inWon+$26.551010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-71.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers42c37.24$15 inLost-$15.4712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Texas Rangers33c33.61$11 inLost-$11.131,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Houston Astros69c15$10 inWon+$4.725260.3%152 W · 100 L+16.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.