MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd19e11288185d38dc5314544f514e26e06066825e502fab78a3fdea7062a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 3,752$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 51c | 1,686$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.06 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 1,225$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.71 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,195$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.89 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 718.31$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.83 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 37c | 543.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.17 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 522.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 465.13$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.64 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 419.39$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.45 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 338.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 37c | 336.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 246.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 173.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 160.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 58c | 146.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 28c | 90.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 41c | 77.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 74.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 56c | 62.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 54.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 57c | 48.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Under | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Over | 42c | 40.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 39c | 30.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 60c | 30.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 64c | 30.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 20.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Under | 68c | 16.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.