MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f274b50f45935c09f6cad5b5898d3aa61d70120cee4be39066cfd82e9f3a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 10,530$5,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,255.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 5,399$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 4,398$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 2,181$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Under | 53c | 1,901$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.17 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 1,853$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 1,521$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.58 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 58c | 1,007$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.06 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 46c | 812.97$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 62c | 760.23$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.34 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 714.3$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Under | 65c | 671.75$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.78 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 35c | 630$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 47c | 610.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 604.01$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 56c | 576.75$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 482$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 453.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 56c | 413.25$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…ff83backed Under | 46c | 364.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 47c | 363.02$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4414backed Over | 58c | 331.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 322.65$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 235.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 229.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 200.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 35c | 166.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 59c | 134.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 54c | 88.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 76.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 42c | 53.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 41c | 53.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…991dbacked Over | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 48.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 56c | 48.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 48.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 45c | 46.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…e71ebacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 44.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 61c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 45c | 30.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 30.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Over | 55c | 30.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 46c | 27.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 25.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…21e8backed Over | 48c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Under | 48c | 21.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.