MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec06309162822abb760956270d762cee2d5f3d697f166de9c6bfb12fb5f369d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 12,098$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,097.54 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 7,541$4,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,345.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,149$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.42 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 963.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.44 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 880.76$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 663.69$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.23 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 600$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 592.93$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 474$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.52 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 394.63$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 389$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 381.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 371.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.71 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 307$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 239.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 164.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 138.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 131.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 121$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 121$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 97.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 82.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 54.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 40.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 28.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…e101backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.