MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20fe59ac2f9321eb59bca66eb4f3d8d338e18df84519e28cd73b510003149e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 7,561$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 40c | 5,597$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.67 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 4,268$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 54c | 1,800$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.77 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 63c | 1,698$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.25 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 1,690$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 1,450$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 60c | 1,219$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.96 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,148$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 44c | 991.14$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.1 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 55c | 894.55$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.55 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 560.93$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 545.95$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 39c | 523$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 58c | 498.5$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.13 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 300.06$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 57c | 187$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 91.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 55c | 75.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 58c | 74.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…c07cbacked Over | 39c | 49.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 56c | 46.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Under | 58c | 43.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 36.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 45c | 34.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 31.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 30.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 57c | 29.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Over | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 68c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.