MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa58abe6b6392e7ae2ee9730254c99a0f7b4211f1f66c6aec4d2dfa7987fc6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 5,166$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.54 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 3,999$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.83 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 3,048$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 1,052$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.13 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 468.95$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 439.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 390.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 306.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 251.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 245$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 236.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 181.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 133.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 101$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf6…34bcbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 62.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 57.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 32.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 31.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 27.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 25.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.