TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres73c8,323$6,101 inWon+$2,221.8610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Philadelphia Phillies60c8,000$4,800 inLost-$4,80060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres46c1,454$664 inWon+$790.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies31c1,200$372 inLost-$371.895,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies22c543.28$120 inLost-$119.758,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Phillies18c276.52$50 inLost-$50.3899624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Phillies20c271$54 inLost-$54.21,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Philadelphia Phillies19c213$40 inLost-$40.157046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres44c171.96$76 inWon+$95.739,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Philadelphia Phillies27c156.91$43 inLost-$42.8212746.5%59 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies61c81.72$50 inLost-$49.8527652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x485a…a7c3backed San Diego Padres80c72.16$58 inWon+$14.436848.5%33 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies18c68$12 inLost-$12.136,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84be…d79dbacked San Diego Padres42c47.73$20 inWon+$27.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+67.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres78c43.4$34 inWon+$9.654,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ead…0b4dbacked San Diego Padres73c41.1$30 inWon+$11.12240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Philadelphia Phillies61c32.25$20 inLost-$19.673070%21 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe6…1d65backed Philadelphia Phillies61c32.24$20 inLost-$19.518544.7%38 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies55c25.38$14 inLost-$13.968,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…a569backed Philadelphia Phillies60c17.1$10 inLost-$10.28520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.