MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dde0289e4a380475f9e078fea6a5279e34b10f9b83f3dc95adc42567d3e5a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 1,819$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.95 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 1,467$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,449$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 1,314$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 1,280$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 57c | 1,168$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.42 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…abe1backed Over | 43c | 1,002$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 45c | 895.23$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.11 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 769.89$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 65c | 710.27$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 56c | 528.01$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 445.35$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 345.81$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 321.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 304.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 263$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 212.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 172.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 46c | 168.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 46c | 168.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 29c | 111.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 75.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Over | 44c | 57.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 45c | 56.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 54c | 55.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 45c | 53.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 49.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Under | 37c | 42.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 38.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 45c | 38.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 45c | 28.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 37c | 27.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 45c | 24.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.