MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1923f568d22e00e49419c2b27f0b8ce4dae06abc0bc8a6e0bc4a287fcdac8568

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $323,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $403,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,779 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Over	49c	204,081$100,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99,999.67	135	61.5%83 W · 52 L	+15.2wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	51c	80,000$40,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39,200	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	51c	44,086$22,458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,628.01	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	51c	40,614$20,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,919.24	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under	51c	38,033$19,397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,636.2	322	51.6%166 W · 156 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under	51c	6,000$3,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,940	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	51c	5,466$2,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700.92	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	1,151	49.2%566 W · 585 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under	51c	4,412$2,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,161.76	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	51c	3,915$1,997 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,918.52	2,291	52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L	+24.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	49c	3,282$1,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,608.18	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Over	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	779	51.1%398 W · 381 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	49c	2,386$1,163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,163.25	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	241	50.6%122 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over	50c	1,800$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	866	53%459 W · 407 L	+16.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over	49c	1,787$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.31	1,056	48.3%510 W · 546 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	51c	1,741$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$853.07	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	859	52.6%452 W · 407 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	51c	980$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.2	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	50c	903.16$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over	43c	825.72$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.05	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	49c	793.67$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.14	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under	52c	769.23$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.23	383	53.8%206 W · 177 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	52c	600.88$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.2	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	28c	600.26$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.15	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under	51c	599.45$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.73	281	54.4%153 W · 128 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bf…04d7backed Over	49c	534.16$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.74	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Over	43c	524.27$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.44	169	47.9%81 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	48c	502.04$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.98	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	21c	484.47$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.43	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Under	52c	390$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.2	483	54.7%264 W · 219 L	+20.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under	80c	374.99$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over	48c	373.76$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.4	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x432d…bda6backed Under	75c	307.65$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.91	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over	33c	256.58$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.92	773	53.9%417 W · 356 L	+35.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under	51c	210.57$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.3	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	49c	210$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.9	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e31…ed82backed Over	29c	203.02$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.36	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	41cpaid	-63%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	151	59.6%90 W · 61 L	+10.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee6b…accbbacked Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	45c	179.97$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.16	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	46c	174.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.55	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under	52c	153.85$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	48c	140.25$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over	48c	139.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.19	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Under	51c	137.18$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.22	295	53.2%157 W · 138 L	+7.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Under	60c	133.69$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.69	174	62.6%109 W · 65 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Under	62c	125.08$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.03	274	54.4%149 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under	80c	124.26$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.85	1,733	49%849 W · 884 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under	51c	98.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.16	401	48.1%193 W · 208 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Under	51c	98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.02	147	59.9%88 W · 59 L	+14.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Over	48c	94.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.19	140	57.9%81 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	17c	72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	79c	52.75$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.97	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Under	51c	52.06$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.51	509	54%275 W · 234 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Over	23c	52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.4wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	158	57.6%91 W · 67 L	+7.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	48c	49.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Under	47c	43.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.92	208	48.6%101 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef27…600fbacked Under	52c	41.67$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	122	60.7%74 W · 48 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	50c	40.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2148…3da9backed Under	51c	40.05$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.62	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e0…88a5backed Over	26c	40.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.19per pick	62cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	254	48.4%123 W · 131 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	100	66%66 W · 34 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcadd…c7e6backed Over	36c	35.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over	47c	32.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under	52c	31.75$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	78c	28.51$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.27	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	59c	27.76$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	1,215	47.6%578 W · 637 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	59c	27.76$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	1,106	48.7%539 W · 567 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Under	51c	27.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	51c	26.88$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.17	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	1,804	53.8%970 W · 834 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Under	62c	24.19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.19	509	62.9%320 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over	50c	23.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	597	49.9%298 W · 299 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Over	49c	22.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	539	50.6%273 W · 266 L	+16.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b4…70eabacked Over	53c	20.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…4512backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bc…f3ebbacked Under	60c	18.6$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.44	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	79c	12.66$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.66	2,583	61.4%1,587 W · 996 L	+70.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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