MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d0f1e4296d2d2152cb84a45e600aa3b745212230ffde8e2f37e0ea10078d907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 10,315$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 43c | 2,510$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.3 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 1,760$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,137$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 1,095$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.04 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 951.41$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 888.93$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 43c | 780$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 700$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 337.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 317.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 256$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 59c | 144.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 95.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 44c | 72.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 41c | 71.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 56.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 45.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 40c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 42c | 27.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…88a5backed Under | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.