MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451dea18194c63905cdd61152a8da0793ba94914d8bbd34872403bf64aba0ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 8,622$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.29 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 7,879$4,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,360.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 3,397$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 37c | 2,201$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 1,696$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.24 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 1,566$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 849.41$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 641.7$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 291.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 64c | 265.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Over | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 67c | 253.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 237$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 47c | 205.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 163.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 120.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 97.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 16c | 69.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 59c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 31c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 35c | 46.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 59c | 28.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 52c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.