MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9069b85f773949f1073893067f57fc04bcb45e2ddc6a7bc683cdd01d0d9c661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 3,355$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 2,820$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 2,461$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 578.9$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 489.96$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 71c | 303.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 290.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 234.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 199.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 146$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 64.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Texas Rangers | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 40.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.