TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BIGof BIG, Lynn Vision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$690,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$802,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $690,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 572 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Lynn Vision37c36,843$13,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,501.6181843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Lynn Vision37c36,699$13,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,578.7541649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BIG62c27,523$17,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,458.7633343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BIG65c20,632$13,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,242.111,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Lynn Vision35c18,258$6,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,390.4617951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Lynn Vision41c14,867$6,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.5263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed BIG63c14,308$9,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,306.1720745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed BIG63c13,850$8,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.510850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Lynn Vision38c13,246$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,033.6223839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked BIG61c11,948$7,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,672.6992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed Lynn Vision37c11,755$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.524238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Lynn Vision39c11,458$4,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,422.0136453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked BIG62c11,154$6,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.8220248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BIG73c10,801$7,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.5144957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Lynn Vision58c8,826$5,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,152.650054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked BIG62c8,312$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.1636152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked BIG40c7,392$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.1622449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ec…511dbacked Lynn Vision39c7,168$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,774.581346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed BIG63c6,666$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.4267041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked BIG63c5,949$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.4638358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed BIG62c5,900$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.9684958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lynn Vision45c5,704$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.861,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BIG29c5,650$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,986.012,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Lynn Vision37c5,305$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.1922750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Lynn Vision39c5,023$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.519057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Lynn Vision36c4,139$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.1620354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Lynn Vision31c3,768$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.240137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed BIG51c3,665$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.493836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked BIG61c3,660$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.391,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Lynn Vision47c3,106$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.4412451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed BIG64c3,091$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.739550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe183…62e6backed BIG62c3,089$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.952951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Lynn Vision40c3,065$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23032542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed BIG62c3,026$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.2225248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BIG48c2,958$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9666446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Lynn Vision41c2,908$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.494,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Lynn Vision39c2,840$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.7911240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed BIG63c2,747$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.372958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Lynn Vision51c2,585$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.76756.7%38 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Lynn Vision51c2,579$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.1833457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BIG59c2,500$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.0737646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed BIG57c2,464$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.3827657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Lynn Vision37c2,383$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.687439.2%29 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked BIG64c2,377$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.9732548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed BIG58c2,337$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.248053.8%43 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lynn Vision44c2,307$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.195,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Lynn Vision38c2,231$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.8614846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed BIG55c2,100$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94515251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Lynn Vision52c2,061$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.5443152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BIG48c2,022$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.271,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Lynn Vision1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed BIG58c1,900$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.621953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Lynn Vision37c1,873$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.138841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Lynn Vision50c1,865$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.734546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Lynn Vision38c1,850$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70355236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Lynn Vision37c1,827$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.981,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed BIG68c1,767$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.4427961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Lynn Vision58c1,700$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.071,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked BIG49c1,680$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.8994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BIG45c1,665$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.641,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfed…9d03backed Lynn Vision37c1,623$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed BIG71c1,600$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9828042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Lynn Vision42c1,556$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.222,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Lynn Vision30c1,493$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.6922241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Lynn Vision29c1,455$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4204240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed BIG50c1,449$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.741,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Lynn Vision41c1,448$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked BIG64c1,381$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.0275245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed BIG51c1,329$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.216546.2%30 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Lynn Vision67c1,296$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.3411265.2%73 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked BIG62c1,272$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.4919351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Lynn Vision36c1,200$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43225145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked BIG68c1,153$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.425971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Lynn Vision78c1,150$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.8246165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Lynn Vision44c1,132$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.2731647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Lynn Vision20c1,120$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22461034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BIG63c1,111$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.0366851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4b…9f92backed BIG63c1,101$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.3710863.9%69 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked BIG62c1,083$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.599047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffda…c1fcbacked BIG63c1,082$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Lynn Vision38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004546.7%21 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Lynn Vision49c1,050$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.242,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed BIG59c1,048$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.289748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Lynn Vision38c1,012$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38622751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaeb…92f6backed BIG64c1,000$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.014057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lynn Vision36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked BIG63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37039548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Lynn Vision40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.597742.9%33 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ba…db41backed Lynn Vision38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed BIG50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50048437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed BIG63c996$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5228455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Lynn Vision38c973.68$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Lynn Vision46c972.58$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.0636440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Lynn Vision33c963.22$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31724038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked BIG53c951.14$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.1410259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Lynn Vision43c950.91$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.454,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Lynn Vision55c934$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.761754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3d…2dbebacked BIG64c933.99$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed BIG34c925.55$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.0315749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Lynn Vision37c868.01$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.2119340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.