TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6157…9fb4backed Over52c63,547$32,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,854.377843.6%34 W · 44 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under48c39,747$19,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,475.172,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Under48c29,694$14,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,583.4243647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under48c27,103$12,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,177.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over51c13,695$7,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,005.826,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over51c11,726$5,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,980.024,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under51c11,327$5,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,496.784,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…acefbacked Over52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2002240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c9,908$4,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,063.464,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over52c9,600$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99239047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad5…4990backed Over52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.9521748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over51c4,384$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.8275248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over52c4,336$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.982,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under49c4,310$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.731,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Under48c4,138$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.5251545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Over52c3,811$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over52c3,633$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.112,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Over52c3,365$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75021052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over52c2,222$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.441,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over53c1,888$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.861,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c1,435$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.376,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c1,283$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.855,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over51c1,256$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.0865549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,255$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.61,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under48c1,170$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.591,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Over52c1,125$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.9944945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over52c1,082$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.6455653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Over51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51016848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under48c955.32$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.7745045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over53c943.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8297050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over53c942.62$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.591,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under48c907.43$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.072,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32564452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over53c583.72$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4640447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over52c546.72$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.431,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Over53c422.15$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7437052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over51c391$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.72,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under64c390.9$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over51c375.52$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5284049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3339948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over52c298.33$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8241346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcada…df46backed Over38c276.51$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.442254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdec…e0e7backed Under49c272$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.722045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9058652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over52c193$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.361,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over51c185$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1353644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe14a…62bebacked Over52c177$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7515145.7%69 W · 82 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over14c170.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1837444.4%166 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under62c165$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under60c157.21$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe426…f4ffbacked Over52c152.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.211956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under47c139.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.497755.8%43 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Over36c137.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7919163.4%121 W · 70 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Over52c137$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.835149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under55c115$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.31,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…e45ebacked Over10c114.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.831346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over41c114$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7434443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbafe…33a6backed Over53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under51c110.2$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7739053.6%209 W · 181 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Over52c105.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559455.3%52 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under48c99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.971,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505961%36 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under50c89.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.391,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0098…71e0backed Over52c89.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8115252%79 W · 73 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.571,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Under68c80.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6424843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2b4…70eabacked Over57c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.63351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4738…e64abacked Over17c67.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over52c67.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.051,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf442…2581backed Over20c66.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.894658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Over52c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.826747.9%128 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.877050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Under47c63.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8211148.6%54 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbac…1a1cbacked Under49c63.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.791060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over52c60.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.528545.9%39 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over20c60.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Under48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3673849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over52c59.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.171,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Over52c54.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.393737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Over52c49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4829250.7%148 W · 144 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over51c48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.632,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over53c48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4428147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0405…2491backed Over53c44.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea94…0b53backed Over53c42.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026940.5%109 W · 160 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over51c37.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.842,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a62…5247backed Over53c34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9314047.9%67 W · 73 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x409d…8f47backed Under48c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5911050.9%56 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over52c31.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.162857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under48c31.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.134846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf88…f6b5backed Over53c29.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.382133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Over53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.