MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7621c96d10075443a9a70d6703470bdb32935ef985fd8950f023617431579b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 1,782$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.98 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 975.91$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.94 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 748$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 609.6$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.3 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 463.28$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 244.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 155$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 120.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 106.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Chicago Cubs | 11c | 103.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 101.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 87.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 84.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 63.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 46.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 46.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 38.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.