MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec791471b85a1086416bcafa337dac42e7c467f3f4467fa5b5ee2f3c650e5d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 76c | 988.36$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 28c | 949.73$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 28c | 673$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 53c | 463.77$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 36c | 300.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 47c | 107.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 23c | 59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…40d7backed No | 40c | 49.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 53c | 27.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.