MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc664adb43ebdf4f3652b6e46f8f9e250d7149e2d00707f66fe32a4d45acab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 6c | 4,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 6c | 3,656$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 6c | 2,848$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 1,664$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 1,611$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.2 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44f…fff1backed Under | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 880.13$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 50c | 546$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 51c | 535.24$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.56 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 400$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 316.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 214.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 195.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 180.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 51c | 134.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 59c | 122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 56c | 117.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Over | 73c | 92.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 88.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 18c | 84.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 33c | 63.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 70c | 46.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 39.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Over | 51c | 34.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e83…ab94backed Over | 69c | 23.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7e77backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.