MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d270fe091452ad78f3c0119ce33ea284229f68be07dafdb7e7750c3b04108a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 13,695$8,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,779.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 30c | 7,279$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.68 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 6,622$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 5,143$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 29c | 2,306$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 2,068$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 30c | 1,644$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.67 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 1,177$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 1,034$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 1,026$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 55c | 520$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 43c | 447.95$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 42c | 294.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 190.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 176.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 45c | 164.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 29c | 115.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 25c | 89.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 84.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 33c | 78.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 67c | 78.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 54c | 73.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 43c | 69.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 59.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 41.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 54c | 36.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 51c | 33.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 43c | 32.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 22.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed Under | 52c | 19.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bd83backed Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627c…aa80backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.