MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27dc58cd42f75131f973533c8107f156fb55001ee9f93567c5d8370264e7c060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 8,572$6,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,270.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 4,736$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 4,371$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 2,301$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 739.86$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 589.43$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.28 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 22c | 511.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 413.39$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 339.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 284.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 269.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…4128backed Kansas City Royals | 14c | 252.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 208.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 203.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 176.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 169.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Texas Rangers | 21c | 168.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 121.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 86.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 84.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e83…ab94backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Texas Rangers | 21c | 49.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 49.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 35.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 33.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 31.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 26.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 21.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Texas Rangers | 77c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.