TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.9560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Texas Rangers51c19,608$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,607.8498149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Kansas City Royals49c14,986$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,399.61,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Kansas City Royals49c9,506$4,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,657.8423948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Kansas City Royals39c8,097$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.1114252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Texas Rangers50c7,575$3,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,787.5253150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas City Royals50c6,715$3,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.521,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Kansas City Royals49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Kansas City Royals49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45044945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals8c4,245$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.62,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835e…4729backed Kansas City Royals50c1,932$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.1460%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Kansas City Royals48c1,822$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.2931958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Texas Rangers52c1,692$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.3129843.6%130 W · 168 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Kansas City Royals3c1,661$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Texas Rangers51c1,478$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.71,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Texas Rangers51c1,356$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.4469453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers79c1,307$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.012,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Kansas City Royals2c1,255$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1371850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Texas Rangers51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58861947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Texas Rangers52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57623152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals40c1,158$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.399,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers51c1,125$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.922,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Kansas City Royals1c1,124$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.074754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53cd…11b3backed Kansas City Royals10c1,005$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6711134.2%38 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Texas Rangers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers51c964.33$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.936,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9783…dccabacked Texas Rangers53c795.41$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.897354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Texas Rangers50c754.97$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4943253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6862…8c75backed Kansas City Royals50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507950.6%40 W · 39 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Texas Rangers51c646$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.542,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Texas Rangers52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9232350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Texas Rangers51c547$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.038856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Texas Rangers51c507$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.432,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Texas Rangers52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Kansas City Royals49c408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.921,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Kansas City Royals17c407.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2979147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1252…e6e0backed Kansas City Royals50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Kansas City Royals12c388$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5660043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Texas Rangers52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6240348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Texas Rangers56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1411951.3%61 W · 58 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals10c351.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.174,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals24c323.42$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Kansas City Royals48c319.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5940645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1946…4959backed Texas Rangers52c311.54$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Texas Rangers51c309$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4150751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b11…09ffbacked Kansas City Royals49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x085c…99e3backed Texas Rangers50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15024448.4%118 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Texas Rangers51c288.06$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.151,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals48c287$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.762,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals49c259.88$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.344,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals14c258.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals9c254.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Texas Rangers51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.551449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Kansas City Royals17c249.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.971,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked Texas Rangers51c221.55$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5617954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb197…4e02backed Kansas City Royals50c221$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.58445.2%38 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Texas Rangers51c216$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.841,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Texas Rangers49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5591749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Texas Rangers50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10037748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Kansas City Royals7c198.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Texas Rangers51c197$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.531,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers77c195$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.115,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Texas Rangers52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed Kansas City Royals8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Texas Rangers51c167.8$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2228456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals11c167.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Kansas City Royals26c144.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.691,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals48c137.15$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.833,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Texas Rangers75c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4947589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Kansas City Royals48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059038.8%229 W · 361 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Kansas City Royals49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016943.2%73 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48e…acf3backed Kansas City Royals49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014144%62 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Kansas City Royals48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Texas Rangers52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4820455.4%113 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe231…93a5backed Kansas City Royals48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Texas Rangers51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0447849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Texas Rangers52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1526148.3%126 W · 135 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Texas Rangers52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Texas Rangers52c83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8476752.3%401 W · 366 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Texas Rangers51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.244949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b0…b2eebacked Kansas City Royals50c69.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.644358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3785…f577backed Texas Rangers52c68.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.057356.2%41 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3339…3492backed Kansas City Royals36c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0718253.8%98 W · 84 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Texas Rangers55c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2578649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x891a…1d79backed Texas Rangers51c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.852147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f3…c5c2backed Kansas City Royals31c64.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011244.6%50 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Kansas City Royals49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424c…82b5backed Texas Rangers52c61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2819352.8%102 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Texas Rangers55c58.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.541,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals20c58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.365,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e5…f52cbacked Texas Rangers53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.63951.3%20 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Kansas City Royals50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Texas Rangers71c54.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.031,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Kansas City Royals49c51.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2584140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Kansas City Royals50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Texas Rangers52c49.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.551,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.