TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,722 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers65c2,576$1,665 inWon+$910.7111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Kansas City Royals34c1,595$550 inLost-$5501,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals35c1,571$550 inLost-$5506,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals18c1,089$196 inLost-$196.028,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Texas Rangers66c696.96$460 inWon+$236.972,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals16c309.24$48 inLost-$48.212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers61c219$134 inWon+$85.411,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals39c176$69 inLost-$68.641,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kansas City Royals35c154.28$54 inLost-$5459549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals39c142.85$56 inLost-$55.712,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers66c131$86 inWon+$44.548,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers67c113.67$76 inWon+$37.43,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Kansas City Royals40c96.25$39 inLost-$38.566056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Kansas City Royals40c65.48$26 inLost-$26.191,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Texas Rangers71c50.38$36 inWon+$14.4543043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x165d…a4d5backed Kansas City Royals39c35.26$14 inLost-$13.759960.6%60 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ed…0adfbacked Kansas City Royals40c34.38$14 inLost-$13.7524657.3%141 W · 105 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Kansas City Royals39c30$12 inLost-$11.61,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.