MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920ee3b472e5727b0e70f200629e95e32a66676494a51a40d719f9b56048a0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 15,775$11,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700.83 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 6,561$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.3 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,262$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.59 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44f…fff1backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 7c | 1,007$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 738.79$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 71c | 738.07$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.66 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 703$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.53 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 640.34$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 7c | 534.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 7c | 485.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 5cpaid | +545.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 426.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 268.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 223.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 28c | 169.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 49c | 146.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 27c | 124.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 89.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e83…ab94backed Over | 56c | 87.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 84.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 46c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 70c | 69.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 60.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 58.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 34c | 41.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 55c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 74c | 30.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 247 | 63.6%157 W · 90 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 55c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 65c | 27.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Over | 71c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 59c | 21.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.