MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf70b897a45ba802548a6793ed51b068d316e878d176d16f75f7cc90d1cf891ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 9,831$5,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 4,573$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 2,912$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 1,260$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,071$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 1,047$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 54c | 555.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 505.66$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 415.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 75c | 250.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 53c | 186.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 144.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 34c | 136$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 53c | 131.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 40c | 118.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 40c | 114.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 17c | 94.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 53c | 87.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 26c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 26c | 55.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 53c | 49.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 48.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 43c | 43.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 74c | 37.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 34c | 34.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 56c | 32.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 38c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 45c | 23.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.