MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4dc67542bf9530e4307f6126324bfc286cee6930ed04a95128f7aaf083c2b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 33c | 9,898$3,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,617.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 7,688$5,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,151.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 36c | 1,104$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.44 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 78c | 579.11$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.98 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 62c | 478.84$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 42c | 470.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 37c | 413.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.05 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 29c | 375$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 33c | 370.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 63c | 313$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 10c | 290$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 22c | 255.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.82 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Houston Astros | 48c | 197.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 193.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 110.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 36c | 108.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 52c | 80.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 37c | 44.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 31c | 43.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 73c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed New York Yankees | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 65c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 68c | 16.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Yankees | 74c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.