TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$590,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$593,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $590,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x408f…b2f4backed New York Yankees58c299,414$173,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,561.044348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Houston Astros42c256,203$107,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,597.523638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Houston Astros43c70,727$30,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,314.156753.7%36 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Yankees43c25,000$10,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,624.9950152.5%263 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Houston Astros36c24,369$8,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,504.9188446.3%409 W · 475 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed New York Yankees58c21,000$12,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,179.971844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees44c19,965$8,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,828.9611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Yankees54c16,552$8,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,920.8362043.1%267 W · 353 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Houston Astros42c12,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9608552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros38c10,954$4,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,777.463,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Houston Astros42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.9554051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros71c8,633$6,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.7912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros35c8,067$2,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280.634,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed New York Yankees44c5,000$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.9916647.6%79 W · 87 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros52c4,532$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1648,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Houston Astros60c3,448$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.7682042.6%349 W · 471 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Houston Astros43c3,332$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.0224739.3%97 W · 150 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed New York Yankees17c3,240$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.7611947.9%57 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros42c2,799$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.56,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees58c2,586$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Houston Astros42c2,478$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.2388349.3%435 W · 448 L-4.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Astros42c2,430$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.2292645.9%425 W · 501 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed New York Yankees57c2,399$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.431,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros42c2,273$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.261,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros42c2,222$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.7299149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros42c2,048$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.842,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed Houston Astros39c2,000$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.842166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked New York Yankees52c1,402$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.517341.1%30 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Houston Astros42c1,360$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.811,52751.1%780 W · 747 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros33c1,302$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.048,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Houston Astros42c1,211$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70697044.9%436 W · 534 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees57c1,166$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.633,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked New York Yankees58c1,134$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.7271253.4%380 W · 332 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees59c1,128$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.9135658.1%207 W · 149 L+26.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed New York Yankees57c1,097$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1327447.8%131 W · 143 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed New York Yankees48c1,076$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3811449.1%56 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dfe…b081backed New York Yankees47c999.92$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.971450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked Houston Astros78c930.37$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Houston Astros42c930$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.420836.5%76 W · 132 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros72c905.67$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.331,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros54c896.13$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.25,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros36c854.87$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.68,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe116…6850backed New York Yankees58c848.95$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed New York Yankees49c833.66$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+62.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees49c727.52$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed New York Yankees58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016146.6%75 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387e…c514backed New York Yankees58c659.76$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.661877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+31.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros42c635.47$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.574,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Houston Astros65c610$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.72250%11 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+238.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed Houston Astros41c607.31$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.318850%44 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Houston Astros50c598.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.0986948.4%421 W · 448 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked New York Yankees28c588.32$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7348145.3%218 W · 263 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked New York Yankees59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30035054.6%191 W · 159 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Houston Astros42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29014849.3%73 W · 75 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e9…836abacked New York Yankees72c499.98$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9921822.9%50 W · 168 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6728…a070backed Houston Astros25c489.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+307.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Houston Astros43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1215143%65 W · 86 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed New York Yankees42c431.45$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0336253.3%193 W · 169 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x003f…3805backed Houston Astros39c420.51$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.516443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed02…85f7backed New York Yankees49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros63c400.82$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.262,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Houston Astros42c381.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.0812647.6%60 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e55…a332backed New York Yankees57c375$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.757953.2%42 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Houston Astros43c348.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.841,20149.1%590 W · 611 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Houston Astros43c346.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.198460.7%51 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked New York Yankees58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023155%127 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x039f…a567backed New York Yankees59c335.59$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees48c328.85$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2788656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros42c320$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.61,41843.4%616 W · 802 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees44c315.32$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.451,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed New York Yankees57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17159252.7%312 W · 280 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked New York Yankees61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18318067.8%122 W · 58 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed New York Yankees43c296.62$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6916840.5%68 W · 100 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Houston Astros43c291.34$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0659243.2%256 W · 336 L-2.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Houston Astros42c280$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.41,32644%583 W · 743 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked New York Yankees57c267.84$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6757753.2%307 W · 270 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed New York Yankees17c260.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.464429.5%13 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Houston Astros42c260$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.81,22143.4%530 W · 691 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf824…ebe3backed New York Yankees20c257.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed New York Yankees71c254.92$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0427446.7%128 W · 146 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed New York Yankees58c242.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-48.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Yankees61c235.8$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8861646.4%286 W · 330 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Houston Astros42c235$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.375453.2%401 W · 353 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bde…e51dbacked Houston Astros43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.564742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees29c228.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.784,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Houston Astros20c226$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1815318.9%10 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Houston Astros42c223.21$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4652347.2%247 W · 276 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed New York Yankees63c220.89$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.164045%18 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b7…9f1fbacked Houston Astros66c207.67$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.613063.3%19 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59dd…e944backed Houston Astros66c207.16$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.431154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1143,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed New York Yankees58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610251%52 W · 50 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked New York Yankees57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1146756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8b…37c8backed Houston Astros66c199.4$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.89970.7%70 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033c…bafebacked Houston Astros47c198.37$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.546660.6%40 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Houston Astros43c195.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.356048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked New York Yankees58c195$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.131848.7%155 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed New York Yankees37c189.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013333.8%45 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Houston Astros32c187.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.531330.7%96 W · 217 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked New York Yankees46c185$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.419343.5%84 W · 109 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.