MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c03785dded0e9e731cac523004f59b73e07da4efee20bc93f8ff861c0138f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 19,069$9,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,152.96 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 5,359$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.97 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,979$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…0db6backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 53c | 902.13$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.04 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 874.2$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.62 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 666.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.66 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 665.07$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.52 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 48c | 620.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 53c | 375.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 48c | 168$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 74.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 48c | 71.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…ae4bbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 47.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…6431backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 52c | 42.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 54c | 39.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 55c | 31.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 52c | 21.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.