Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e5f9177358679e0a0e880f9ad85c28099cbbe4bb40c83202a2321105f9aeaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 33c | 3,045$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.54 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 68c | 1,164$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 911.44$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.94 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 64c | 760.21$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 627.61$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.5 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 32c | 304.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 282.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 70c | 280.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 278.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 38c | 258.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 244.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 142.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 112.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 107.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 31c | 87.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 51.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 39c | 45.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 62c | 40.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +9.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.