Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ea59fc6f3427d5fe1b54fcc194f3cd9d774d2ed2ab16f4942e1e81f73a60f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,821$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.73 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 12c | 1,046$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 10c | 674.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 648.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 489.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 481.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 4c | 444.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 10c | 413.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 405.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 344.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 335.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 331.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 7c | 266.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 6c | 247.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 222.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 5c | 218.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 5c | 214.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 10c | 214$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 13c | 211.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 9c | 204.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 203.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…dd47backed Yes | 12c | 160.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 10c | 155.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 10c | 129.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 101.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…5617backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…8aa4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 17c | 69.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.