Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90622d8e631a3bb858b3446dfc0195341817f7a2960b5c7d87eb941b948b4af7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 2,395$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,168$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.92 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 45c | 894.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 16c | 824.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 602.62$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 552.81$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 27c | 412.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 394.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 21c | 389.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 25c | 370.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 44c | 353.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 39c | 347.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 78c | 315$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 314$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 46c | 302.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 36c | 299.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 28c | 284.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 52c | 283.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 68c | 263.24$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 250.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 239$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 238$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 17c | 232.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 217.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 211.47$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 198.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 191.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 184.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 182.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 180.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 179.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 179.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 175.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 165.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 151$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 67c | 149.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 146.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 145.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 144$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 72c | 143.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 125.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 38c | 119.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 114.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 111.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 17c | 107.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…261abacked Yes | 25c | 106.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 106.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 104.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 98.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 15c | 94.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 41c | 93.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 92.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 72c | 86.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 75.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 71.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 67.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 62c | 64.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 59c | 60.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 58.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 41c | 57.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 65c | 57.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 70c | 56.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…3817backed Yes | 36c | 55.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 55.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 61c | 53.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 59c | 50.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…8aa4backed No | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 58c | 46.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 24c | 46.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 44.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed Yes | 45c | 44.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 71c | 43.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 40.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 39.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 39.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 38.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 37.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 44c | 36.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 34c | 35.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.