Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fbd8c44847f693c4b118a8f4cea93a52efc8a6ae19721aaf121237d8ff9537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 40c | 1,061$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.01 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 853.5$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 602.48$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 46c | 577.07$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.13 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 65c | 550.55$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 461.22$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 69c | 444.22$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 342.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 46c | 328.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 319.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 15c | 251.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 244.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 57c | 240.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 240.06$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 238.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 69c | 223.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 57c | 223.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 219.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…d652backed No | 43c | 207.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 73c | 195.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 195.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 194.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 6c | 190.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 52c | 185.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 44c | 176.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 175.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…2ab7backed Yes | 38c | 155.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 155.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 53c | 151.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 144.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked No | 13c | 138.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 35c | 114.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 113$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked Yes | 46c | 108.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 33c | 106.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 104.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed Yes | 73c | 102.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…8aa4backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 60c | 99.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 34c | 99.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 30c | 94.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 82.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 80c | 81.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 80.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 77c | 77.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 71.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 67.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 63.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 31c | 57.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 64c | 53.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 44c | 52.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 51.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 34c | 50.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 50.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 70c | 49.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 49.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 65c | 47.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 47.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 47.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 43.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 37c | 43.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 43.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 79c | 42.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 42.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 79c | 38.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…3817backed Yes | 37c | 37.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 34.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…ebe1backed No | 57c | 34.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 40c | 32.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bb…7a45backed Yes | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 65c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed No | 67c | 27.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.